In America, they call it pork-barrel politics. In predominantly Muslim Indonesia, where pork is not a popular meat, the same practice exists. We call it money politics. And everyone here agrees not to bother with the Indonesian translation politik uang. Stick to English. It's so much catchier.

Pork barrel politics or money politics essentially means spending money with the intention of buying votes or influence. Pork barrel politics is a little more specific, as it refers to government spending, usually ahead of an election year, designed to win over support or votes.

Money politics on the other hand refers to a more general practice, by anyone in politics, whether the incumbents or the challengers, to try to spend their way into election victory.

During one recent discussion at a think tank organization, the question naturally came up when we reviewed the upcoming elections, which are just a year away. Where is the pork?

How will President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono spend in his budget specifically designed to win him extra votes come election time? Being the incumbent, he has the luxury of apportioning the state budget in a way that will give him an edge over his political rivals in 2009. He is bound to make full use of this prerogative, sooner or later.

Well, as it turned out, look or wait no further.

SBY is already apportioning a huge size of his 2008 budget that in America would smack as pork barrel. He committed himself as far back as November to not increase the domestic price of fuels, which means the government will continue to pump subsidies at gas stations no matter how high world oil prices have go up.

The government has already revised the size of the fuel subsidy, from the original budgeted Rp 45.8 trillion to Rp 102.1 trillion, but even this is still a conservative sum, calculated on the assumption of world oil prices averaging $80 a barrel throughout the year.

Oil prices hovered around $100 a barrel these past few weeks and don't look like heading south soon.

In the latest revision of its 2008 spending plans (now being negotiated with the House of Representatives), the government has increased the electricity subsidy to Rp 42.6 trillion from Rp 29.8 trillion and the food subsidy to Rp 19.2 trillion from Rp 7.2 trillion.

This brings total spending on subsidy, let's call it SBY's pork, in 2008, to close to Rp 164 trillion. That's 18 percent of the budgeted total spending of Rp 910 trillion.

The figure will become higher, much higher. Even SBY has admitted that unless the nation curtails its fuel consumption, the total fuel subsidy bill could soar up to Rp 250 trillion.

Having recognized the possibility the calculation could easily slip, the president still refuses to eat his own words, calling instead on the public to go for more efficient use of energy and going as far as instructing his subordinates to introduce fuel rationing through the use of smart cards.

Anything but an increase in price.

Who is he exactly targeting in this huge pork barrel spending? The middle class, including the noisy and rowdy college students, who could upset his election chances. These are the main benefactors of the President's generosity. This is one of those regressive subsidy schemes: the richer you are, the more benefit goes to your pocket.

The middle class is the one group in society that is more politically savvy. No president really wants to upset this group unnecessarily, especially if you are facing an election.

Historically, poorly timed increases in fuel prices have been politically costly. It precipitated Soeharto's downfall in May 1998; presidents B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman Wahid avoided it completely; Megawati Soekarnoputri froze fuel prices in election year 2004.

SBY did increase fuel prices in 2005, twice, and survived politically after a smart information campaign to convince the public that it would have been just and fair to spend the subsidy money on the poor rather than the wealthy.

And that's exactly what the government did: handing out cash subsidies to the poor to cushion the impact of higher fuel prices.

That was then. This is now, a year before the election.

The House of Representatives, the one force that could block SBY's game, not surprisingly become a partner in the coalition of the willing as the political factions too are eying the 2009 election.

Not a single faction in the House, not even the main opposition the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, is opposing the President's no-increase-in-fuel-price policy.

SBY's pork barrel spending is being certified as halal (kosher) by the House.

It remains a big question mark however whether Indonesia can really sustain such a huge subsidy on fuel before it affects other non-financial aspects of the economy, such as our competitiveness, and most of all, our credibility in the eyes of investors and donors.

Even a bigger question for the President is whether the middle class appreciates his gesture and returns him to office in 2009. Ask Megawati what happened to her in 2004. The middle class people were an ungrateful lot.

The writer is chief editor of The Jakarta Post.

Popular

Thirteen dead after blast during military ammunition disposal

Govt considers restricting cassava, tapioca imports

Nearly 700 buildings in Jakarta lacking fire safety equipment