Final tallies from manual vote counting conducted by the polling body in densely populated East Java on Tuesday gave a slim victory to Soekarwo and his running mate Saifullah Yusuf in the second round of the first-ever direct gubernatorial election here.

Unlike the results of five quick counts on balloting day on Nov. 4, the pair won 50.2 percent or 7,729,944 million of a total 16 million valid votes, while rival Khofifah Indar Parawansa and her running mate Mudjiono grabbed 49.8 percent or 7.669,712 million, a little bit less than the former's tally.

Despite Soekarwo's unexpected win and the pending legal settlement of Khofifah's lawsuit at the Constitutional Court over alleged vote rigging, the election result is unlikely lead to social conflict between the two candidates' supporters, nor pose a threat to political stability in the province, for numerous reasons.

As indicated by the vote counting results, almost 50 percent or 13 million eligible voters did not care for the poll and did not use their right to vote, with more than 38 percent of so-called golput (undecided voters) in the second round of the poll.

Second, the losing side apparently has no courage to launch a "political rebellion", because unlike Soekarwo who is backed by influential clerics, the bureaucracy and Nahdlatul Ulama's Ansor Youth Organization, Khofifah is supported by female voters, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) sympathizers, small parties and uninfluential people disappointed with the local government's poor performance.

Above all, what does the gubernatorial race result mean? Can it be really taken as a political benchmark for the upcoming presidential election? Can President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his Democratic Party consider it a snap election for his reelection in 2009?

Despite Soekarwo's victory, both Yudhoyono and his party cannot expect too much in terms of political gain in the coming legislative elections in April and presidential race in October. By contrast, former president Megawati Soekarnoputri and her PDI-P have the chance to do a lot during the campaign season to win the hearts of undecided voters mostly believed to be supporters of Nahdlatul Ulama, the country's largest Muslim organization, and of the internal conflict-ridden National Awakening Party (PKB).

Java is home to 62.5 percent of Indonesia's 230 million people, and the number of undecided voters in gubernatorial elections in West, Central and East Java this year reached between 27 percent and 50 percent.

Quite different from the U.S. presidential election, which was also held on the same day, the head-to-head race in East Java was in fact not a fierce one. While Democrat Barack Obama and his Republican rival John McCain offered up not only their own charismatic leadership but also programs to make changes and defuse the global financial crisis during the campaign season, Soekarwo and Khofifah were busy approaching prospective supporters with money and basic commodity packages, instead of sound concepts and concrete programs in hand.

The province has spent Rp 1 trillion (US$90 million), huge amounts of energy and months of work to organize the poll. The outcome: a winner with political support of only 25 percent of the province's 37 million people.

As expressed by numerous activists, random voters and professionals on Tuesday, besides having neither charisma nor leadership skills, both candidates had no comprehensive concept nor concrete programs for change in the next five years.

Both pledged to improve economic growth and farmers' incomes and facilitate compensation payments for mudflow victims in Sidoarjo, but they failed to convince the people over how they would spend the province's budget of almost Rp 7 trillion to improve economic growth from the current 5 percent, revitalize agriculture so as to improve 30 million farmers' incomes, create jobs for 7.1 million poor and jobless, and attract foreign investors to invest in the resource-rich province.

The two candidates had no political courage to seek a comprehensive settlement to the mudflow that has affected the people in Sidoarjo and investors for more than two years.

Despite the NU's political support for Khofifah, most influential clerics stood behind affluent candidate Soekarwo, who occupied the highest echelon government position for 10 years, and turned a blind eye to the female candidate because they remained allergic to a woman leader as they sought to satisfy their feudalistic culture.

Yet Soekarwo's future legitimacy is based not on his slim victory, but will depend much on his administration's performance. If he works harder with strong leadership and pro-people policies and makes significant achievements to address the province's economic, social and environmental issues, he will win strong political support from the people, including undecided voters.

Soekarwo and Saifullah should bear in mind that a direct gubernatorial election is only a means, instead of a goal, in developing a true democracy.

The author is a staff writer at The Jakarta Post

Popular

Indonesian hotel chain confirms exit from Cuba

Corruption scandals, rupiah fall revive reshuffle talks

Waiting is not an option