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Dollar near two-month trough as US inflation data awaited

By Jiaxing Li (Reuters)
Hong Kong, China
Mon, August 10, 2026

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An employee displays Indonesian rupiah and United States dollar banknotes at Bank Syariah Indonesia in South Tangerang, Banten, on Jan. 21, 2026. An employee displays Indonesian rupiah and United States dollar banknotes at Bank Syariah Indonesia in South Tangerang, Banten, on Jan. 21, 2026. (Antara/Hafidz Mubarak A)

T

he US dollar hovered near a two-month low against major currencies on Monday as investors awaited this week's inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate path.

The euro edged higher to $1.1558, hovering near its strongest level since mid-June, while sterling was steady at $1.3490, near a five-week peak.

The yen held firm at 157.90 per dollar, having given back some intervention-driven gains but remaining well off the roughly 164 multi-decade low hit late last month.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, was little changed at 99.6, hovering near its lowest level since June 2.

Data on Friday showed the US economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July and job gains for the prior two months were revised sharply lower, cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike next month.

US Treasury yields fell as the jobs report dashed hike bets, with those on benchmark US 10-year notes last at 4.637 percent. The futures market has scaled back the chance of a September move to around 44 percent, from 67 percent a week ago.

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"The weaker US labor-market signal has pulled down real-rate expectations, extended the dollar decline [...] but not yet a clean easing story," Geoff Yu, senior EMEA market strategist at BNY, wrote in a note, adding that perceptions around US inflation data will likely be the biggest factor for currencies this week.

A consensus estimate calls for the core CPI to rise 0.2 percent month-on-month in July, lifting the annual rate to 2.5 percent and extending a gradual moderation in inflation. The annual rate was 2.6 percent in June.

Producer price data on Thursday and retail sales figures on Friday will further inform the outlook for inflation.

"Although there's a lot of inflation dynamics, the Fed will for now stay on the sidelines and wait to see how things play out," Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB, said in a podcast.

Oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent oil futures last up 1.4 percent at roughly $85 per barrel amid continued uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said a deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes was in its final stages but it added that the US must still meet other conditions.

In Asia, the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar each slipped 0.1 percent to $0.7062 and $0.5889 respectively.

Market participants await the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to hold its key rate at 4.35 percent for the rest of the year.

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