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Analysis: Inaugural production, returning investors bolster Prabowo’s energy agenda
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Out to sea: The Oyong oil and gas rig is seen in the Sampang Block, located in the Madura Strait, off the coast of East Java. Medco took over the block from Ophir Energy in 2019 after Medco acquired Ophir. (SKK Migas/SKK Migas)
P
resident Prabowo Subianto has officially launched the initial production of the Forel and Terubuk oil and gas fields located in the South Natuna Sea Block B, Riau Islands Province. The block is operated by Medco E&P Natuna Ltd., a subsidiary of PT Medco Energi Internasional. This milestone aligns with the government’s drive toward energy self-sufficiency and is further bolstered by signs of renewed interest from global energy giants Chevron Corporation and TotalEnergies, both of whom had previously exited Indonesia due to shifting oil and gas regulations.
The Forel and Terubuk fields began production on May 16, 2025, and are expected to deliver a combined output of 20,000 barrels of oil per day and 60 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (MMSCFD). Medco holds a 75 percent participating interest (PI) in the 11,000-hectare Block B. The company acquired a 40 percent PI from ConocoPhillips in 2016 and an additional 35 percent from Inpex Corporation in 2017. The remaining 25 percent is held by Prime Natuna Inc., which purchased it from Chevron in 2017.
President Prabowo praised the near-100 percent local content used in the Forel and Terubuk projects. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia noted that US$600 million has been invested in the development, creating 2,300 jobs. These projects are part of the government’s broader push to increase national oil production to 1 million barrels per day by 2029–2030. Currently, oil lifting stands at 580,000 bpd, short of the 2025 state budget target of 605,000 bpd, and significantly down from the 1.4 million bpd level reached in 2000.
Meanwhile, TotalEnergies is reportedly seeking to return to Indonesia, seven years after state-owned enterprise Pertamina assumed control of the Mahakam Block. The French supermajor oil and gas company is reportedly planning to farm into PETRONAS’s offshore production-sharing contract in the 844,449-hectare Bobara Block. According to energy analysts, this move aligns with Total’s strategic focus on expanding its gas portfolio and signals renewed confidence in Indonesia’s upstream oil and gas sector.
Furthermore, The Upstream Oil and Gas Special Regulatory Task Force (SKK Migas) revealed that Chevron, which exited the Indonesia Deepwater Development (IDD) project less than two years ago, is also exploring a return. SKK Migas reported that the company may engage in joint studies or acquire stakes in promising blocks such as Andaman and Kutai. Analysts attribute this renewed interest to more attractive domestic gas prices and the proximity of new gas reserves to existing infrastructure.
Historically, TotalEnergies operated the Mahakam Block in East Kalimantan in partnership with Pertamina from 1967 until their contract expired in 2018. Chevron, on the other hand, previously managed the Rokan Block and the IDD project, which included the Bangka and Gendalo-Gehem fields in the Makassar Strait. Chevron’s exit from IDD in 2023 was attributed to the project's inability to compete for capital, paving the way for Italy’s Eni S.p.A. to take over as operator.
The commencement of production at Forel and Terubuk could ease fiscal pressures for the Indonesian government as it undertakes several high-cost policy initiatives. Additionally, the potential return of Total and Chevron suggests improving sentiment among international investors after years of friction with domestic policies and punitive trade tariffs from the United States. However, despite these positive signals, achieving the government’s ambitious energy targets remains a formidable challenge.
