This year, ASEAN still barely resembles a community in its true sense of the word as its leaders have come up with a new vision for 2045 with even more audacious targets.
he ASEAN “Vision 2045: Our Shared Future” endorsed by regional leaders in their recent summit in Kuala Lumpur is an ambitious blueprint to turn Southeast Asia into the epicenter of growth for the global economy in the next 20 years. Those familiar with ASEAN know that the bloc has always been long on vision but often falls short on implementation.
Do not be too quick in dismissing the document, however. The vision at least keeps the member countries united in purpose, though not necessarily always in action, about where they want to see Southeast Asia in the next 20 years. Bear in mind that China and India, two Asian powers with larger economies, also have a claim to the global stage. We should greet the latest ASEAN document with a sense of perspective.
The Vision 2045 is the third document in the evolution of the ASEAN community. The community project turns out to be so grandiose that ASEAN keeps kicking the can down the road in trying to turn the region into a community. We may recall the excitement when the project was launched in ASEAN capitals in 2015. As soon as reality sank in about the challenges involved in building a community, they came up with an ASEAN Vision 2025.
This year, ASEAN still barely resembles a community in its true sense of the word as its leaders have now come up with a new vision for 2045 with even more audacious targets. By setting an even longer time frame, those responsible for drafting the vision would probably not be around or too old to answer questions if the vision fails to materialize.
We should not dismiss the community project altogether. The 10 member countries have indeed become more integrated over the years through greater interactions, including trading, travel, communications and collaborations.
ASEAN governments may claim some of the credits, but this happens largely because these are neighbors that are becoming prosperous. We see similar developments between ASEAN and other neighbors, including China, India, Japan, South Korea and Australia.
The Vision 2045 envisages a more “resilient, innovative, dynamic and people-centered” ASEAN community, big words that pose a big challenge for member governments to implement. The vision links these goals with the four strategic pillars, namely political and security, economy, social and culture and connectivity. Of these, it is the political and security pillar that is slowing down the entire community project.
Forging a community from a collection of nations governed under very different systems, an absolute monarchy, a communist state, a junta, authoritarians and semi-democracies, is hard, if not impossible. The European Union, in contrast, required former communist East European states to meet basic guarantees of rights and freedoms and run democratic elections before they could join. Their shared values are almost non-existent in ASEAN.
ASEAN members are also divided on several crucial issues such as the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, the handling of maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea and on approaching the big power rivalry between China and the United States.
Since decisions in ASEAN are made by consensus, forging greater political unity among the 10 members becomes a huge challenge, though historically not impossible. It just takes time. The “ASEAN way” has become a euphemism for slowness. With the planned membership expansion, Timor-Leste this year and possibly Papua New Guinea down the road, the decision-making processes will become even slower.
The ASEAN community project can hardly move when one of the four pillars is weak or even broken. Typically, the Vision 2045 avoids the issues that have stopped the bloc from moving faster. With or without the new vision, the ASEAN community is evolving, albeit at a inconsistent, somewhat natural pace, dictated largely by its economic development.
ASEAN can move a lot faster if members are more serious about the latest community vision their leaders have described, and more importantly, address the sensitive political and security issues.
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