Iran, after more than four decades of sanctions and survival, agreed to stop attacking not out of capitulation but calculation. The 12-day war has not diminished Tehran’s will. It has sharpened it. The ceasefire is a tactical delay, a way to preserve its nuclear program and accelerate efforts to become a nuclear state. 

But if war resumes, and it very likely will, it may not begin in Tehran. It may begin in Tel Aviv. A permanent end to the conflict would amount to a loss for Israel, as it would have failed to achieve its two primary objectives: The destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and the replacement of the Iranian regime with a more controllable figure.

Israel, having drawn the US into the conflict, now sees what could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity. With Trump, Israel has in him the ideal partner: A leader easily provoked, deeply transactional and quick to use military power for political gain.

For years, Israel has viewed Iran not just as a threat but as a long-term obstacle to its regional dominance. With Iraq crippled, Syria fragmented and US influence willing to do the heavy lifting, Israel sees an opening to do to Iran what has already been done to Baghdad: Dismantle a nation under the justification of preemptive defense.

In the coming weeks, we may well see claims that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear facilities or planning another strike. Some of these claims may be credible. Others may not. But in the fog of war, the difference hardly matters. Israel may not want this ceasefire to hold. Not when it believes it is on the verge of erasing its greatest adversary for good.

The Middle East stands at the edge. And what happens next may drag not just the region, but the world into another catastrophic war.