This is not just a price crisis. These shocks reverberate through credit markets, insurance systems and sovereign balance sheets, edging the world toward a global financial crisis.

At a surface level, there appear to be traditional winners. Demand for coal has increased, described by some as a windfall and “comeback” for the coal sector (The Economist).

Historically, oil, gas and coal have functioned as substitutes: When oil is disrupted, gas or coal can act as buffers, and vice versa. Energy portfolios often diversify across these three commodities on the assumption that disruption in one will be hedged by another.

Despite being different commodities, however, all three rely on a concentrated number of suppliers, long logistical supply chains and complex trade agreements. Because they are treated as substitutes, shocks to one inevitably affect the others. A winner today can quickly become a loser tomorrow.

The evidence increasingly shows that all three are risky bets.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), once viewed as a “transition fuel”, is highly exposed to the same geopolitical and logistical risks as oil. With around 20 percent of the global LNG supply removed, prices have spiked 143 percent, particularly in Asia where import dependence is high.